Best CS2 Cases to Open
Every case ranked by expected return per open — the real drop odds multiplied by live Steam market prices for every skin, wear, and StatTrak™ combination, including the case's own price plus the $2.49 key where one is required. Recomputed from prices as of 2026-08-08. Spoiler: every ROI is under 100% — the house always wins — but the gap between the best and worst case is huge.
| # | Case | Cost / open | Expected return | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $7.16 | $6.08 | 84.9% | |
| 2 | $23.20 | $19.67 | 84.8% | |
| 3 | $4.45 | $3.33 | 74.9% | |
| 4 | $6.57 | $4.67 | 71.0% | |
| 5 | $20.23 | $14.22 | 70.3% | |
| 6 | $3.11 | $2.14 | 68.9% | |
| 7 | $4.32 | $2.92 | 67.6% | |
| 8 | $5.00 | $3.37 | 67.5% | |
| 9 | $5.16 | $3.46 | 67.1% | |
| 10 | $7.89 | $5.23 | 66.3% | |
| 11 | $4.91 | $3.19 | 65.1% | |
| 12 | $9.35 | $6.07 | 64.9% | |
| 13 | $10.55 | $6.77 | 64.2% | |
| 14 | $3.37 | $2.16 | 64.0% | |
| 15 | $6.72 | $4.24 | 63.2% | |
| 16 | $10.63 | $6.69 | 63.0% | |
| 17 | $3.98 | $2.48 | 62.4% | |
| 18 | $3.60 | $2.24 | 62.3% | |
| 19 | $20.10 | $12.36 | 61.5% | |
| 20 | $6.45 | $3.93 | 61.0% | |
| 21 | $8.71 | $5.24 | 60.2% | |
| 22 | $15.90 | $9.53 | 59.9% | |
| 23 | $8.07 | $4.83 | 59.9% | |
| 24 | $48.56 | $28.85 | 59.4% | |
| 25 | $15.03 | $8.88 | 59.1% | |
| 26 | $4.16 | $2.38 | 57.2% | |
| 27 | $18.51 | $10.18 | 55.0% | |
| 28 | $2.90 | $1.59 | 54.9% | |
| 29 | $34.22 | $18.27 | 53.4% | |
| 30 | $7.84 | $4.12 | 52.6% | |
| 31 | $2.79 | $1.46 | 52.4% | |
| 32 | $6.89 | $3.58 | 51.9% | |
| 33 | $139.69 | $69.11 | 49.5% | |
| 34 | $3.32 | $1.64 | 49.3% | |
| 35 | $4.11 | $1.95 | 47.4% | |
| 36 | $2.69 | $1.25 | 46.6% | |
| 37 | $6.89 | $3.18 | 46.2% | |
| 38 | $3.19 | $1.42 | 44.4% | |
| 39 | $16.61 | $7.32 | 44.1% | |
| 40 | $14.47 | $6.21 | 42.9% | |
| 41 | $69.84 | $25.26 | 36.2% | |
| 42 | $87.99 | $28.11 | 32.0% |
Expected return uses the published tier odds (79.92 / 15.98 / 3.20 / 0.64 / 0.26%), uniform item chance within a tier, the wear-bucket float distribution mapped to each skin's float caps, and a 10% StatTrak™ chance where supported. Prices are Steam listing prices — Steam keeps ~15% of any real sale, so real-money ROI is lower still. Offer terminals (Sealed Genesis / Dead Hand) are excluded: they sell purchase offers, not random drops, so per-open ROI doesn't apply. How the math works.