CASELY

Trade-Up Contract Simulator

Exchange same-rarity skins for one of the next tier up — the exact CS2 mechanic. Ten inputs up to Covert, and since the October 22, 2025 update five Coverts trade into a knife or gloves. Each input "votes" for its own case, the outcome is uniform within that case's next tier, and the output float is your inputs' average wear remapped into the winning item's range. All probabilities and prices below are computed live from 2026-09-06 Steam data.

The interactive trade-up simulator runs in your browser using your unboxed inventory. Open some cases first — every skin you keep becomes a possible input.

Best trade-ups right now by expected return

Single-collection contracts using ten of the cheapest eligible input, recomputed from live Steam prices at every refresh. Mixed-collection contracts can beat these — this is the honest baseline, not financial advice.

#ContractInput ×10CostExpectedROI
1 Shadow CaseRestricted → Classified M249 | Nebula Crusader Battle-Scarred $13.40 $16.54 123%
2 Dreams & Nightmares CaseClassified → Covert Dual Berettas | Melondrama Battle-Scarred $80.50 $96.30 120%
3 Prisma CaseClassified → Covert AUG | Momentum Battle-Scarred $64.60 $76.86 119%
4 Gamma 2 CaseClassified → Covert MP9 | Airlock Well-Worn $137.00 $162.51 119%
5 Chroma 3 CaseClassified → Covert P250 | Asiimov Battle-Scarred $150.20 $176.78 118%
6 Spectrum 2 CaseClassified → Covert R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon Field-Tested $121.40 $142.41 117%
7 Gamma CaseClassified → Covert SCAR-20 | Bloodsport Minimal Wear $147.70 $172.70 117%
8 Spectrum 2 CaseRestricted → Classified XM1014 | Ziggy Well-Worn $12.40 $14.19 114%
9 Fever CaseClassified → Covert Glock-18 | Shinobu Battle-Scarred $57.70 $65.88 114%
10 Gamma 2 CaseRestricted → Classified Glock-18 | Weasel Well-Worn $13.50 $15.37 114%
11 Kilowatt CaseClassified → Covert USP-S | Jawbreaker Battle-Scarred $42.90 $48.27 113%
12 Prisma 2 CaseClassified → Covert MAC-10 | Disco Tech Battle-Scarred $70.60 $78.92 112%

Trade-up questions

How does the CS2 trade-up contract work?

You hand in ten skins of the same rarity and receive one skin of the next rarity up. Each input "votes" for its own collection (1-in-10 each), the outcome is uniform among that collection's next-tier skins, and the output float is your inputs' average normalized wear remapped into the winning skin's float range. The simulator above runs the exact same rules.

Can you get a knife or gloves from a trade-up contract?

Yes — since the October 22, 2025 update. Five Covert skins trade into a random knife or gloves from the gold pool of the cases your inputs came from, and five StatTrak™ Coverts give a StatTrak™ knife. Pick the Covert → ★ Gold tier above to run it with live prices and exact odds.

What are the trade-up rules?

Exactly ten inputs, all the same rarity, from Mil-Spec up to Classified (Classified trades into Covert, the ceiling). StatTrak™ contracts require ten StatTrak™ inputs — no mixing. Souvenir skins, knives, gloves and gold items can't be used.

How is the output float calculated?

Take each input's (float − min) ÷ (max − min), average the ten values, then remap into the outcome skin's own caps: avg × (max − min) + min. That's why ten worn inputs can still produce a Factory New output on a skin with low caps — the simulator shows the predicted wear for every possible outcome before you commit.

Which trade-up has the highest ROI right now?

See the live table above — it recomputes from current Steam prices at every data refresh. Expect most contracts to sit below 100%: prices already discount the odds. The profitable exceptions appear when a cheap collection's next tier is briefly overpriced.

The rules

Same rarity on every input. Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert take ten inputs; since the October 22, 2025 update, five Covert skins trade into the gold pool — a random knife or gloves from the cases you used (five StatTrak™ Coverts give a StatTrak™ knife). No mixing StatTrak™ with normal. Souvenir skins can't be used. This simulator keeps it to normal skins.

The math

Outcome chance per item = (inputs from its case ÷ contract size) ÷ (number of next-tier items in that case — for Covert contracts, the full knife/glove pool). Output float = average of each input's (float − min) ÷ (max − min), remapped into the outcome's caps — which is how traders hit Factory New knives from worn inputs.

Strategy

Profitable trade-ups exist because prices, not odds, vary between cases. Mix cheap inputs from a case whose next tier is expensive with a single "vote" toward a jackpot skin. Compare input cost against the expected return shown live — and check the case ROI ranking for where cheap inputs come from.